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The Trees Have Spoken - Summer is
Over!
October
2008
And
along with it the summer "selling season." Let's take a
look at the current real estate market. Overall NW
Montana MLS: Sales volume is down by approximately one
third versus 2007. Let's look at a few market segments.
WHAT'S SELLING
82% of sales activity has come from properties priced
less than $500,000...
WHAT'S NOT
Waterfront - Flathead Lake/River Listings Over
$1,000,000: As of the end of September, there were 120
active listings on Flathead Lake/River over $1M and
there have been 10 sales since January 1, 2008. Yet, the
vast majority of these 120 Sellers stubbornly hold tight
on their pricing in the face of an 8-10 year supply of
listings on the market... An old cabin and 100 feet of
water frontage is not going to generate a million dollar
sale this winter... The Good News - The Pending Home
Sales Index, a forward-looking national trend indicator
based on contracts signed in August, jumped 7.4 percent
to 93.4 and is 8.8 percent higher than August 2007 when
it stood at 85.8. The index is at the highest level
since June 2007 when it stood at 101.4. Lawrence Yun,
NAR's chief economist, said home buyers were responding
to improved affordability. The largest gains are in the
West where the index surged 18.4 percent to 109.5 in
August and remains 37.8 percent above a year ago. An
index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract
activity during 2001.
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The Bottom Line BUYERS RULE!!!
Warren Buffett says now is the time to buy stocks...his
simple rule: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be
greedy when others are fearful." I believe he's right;
except I would say that now is the time to buy Assets,
and most important, Real Estate. In his article "Is Now
the Time to Buy?", Brian Larrabee compares stocks and
real estate: "The 'bubble' term is wholly applicable to
paying ridiculous prices for a stock backed by a web
site and a business plan concocted by some high school
junior. Land, on the other hand, is not only permanent
and limited, but permanently in demand... I remind
myself that there are two sides to every trade; one
entity that is selling on the "cheap" and one entity
that is buying cheap. I'll take the latter side of that
trade any day." Locally, inventory levels are very high
and Sellers are just now beginning to ease listing
prices. Professional negotiations can result in very
significant savings for Buyers on properties that have
not yet been reduced. Buyers will continue to enjoy
enhanced bargaining power and many attractive options
this winter.
"So while many will avoid the market, a brave few will
relish it. How many times have we thought to ourselves
'if only I had bought back then?' Well, for those who
study the boxer's face not in the ring but after the
trainer has revealed the true extent of the damage by
the simple splash of some water and the wipe of a towel,
that time we will look longingly back on is now!"
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